1000th blog post examines if THz has moved from the Trough of Disillusionment for investors

Today’s post marks the 1000^th entry made here on Terahertz Technology.  I started this blog almost exactly four years ago, in April of 2009 to attempt to “spread the word” about this exciting, emerging technology. Please note, I don’t have any delusions about the significance of the fact of 1000 posts here,  to anyone but myself. Nobody is here to read my comments, or my thoughts. Those that do frequent this blog, know that I do attempt to locate, and repost “cutting-edge” information about the development and maturation of THz. There are very probably many tens or hundreds of thousands of 3^rd graders who could perform this function, at a higher level, but I do my best.

 Ultimately, this blog, has been my effort at self-education, and frankly, I’ve learned more than I would have ever dreamed possible. My greatest education has come in learning that investing in emerging technology is very, very, very, risky, and is not for the faint of heart. If you are a retail investor in terahertz, then may the Gods smile upon you, for you are brave of heart, (or perhaps foolhearty).

I thought the two posts on this blog yesterday were apropos to this milestone, as they each reflect how far both the technology and this blog have advanced  over the last four years, and cause me to seriously wonder if this ‘virgin” technology is finally moving from the Gartner cycles, trough of disillusionment, to the slope of enlightenment which hopefully will now  proceed robustly into the plateau of productivity.  At least we can dream, this is so.

The news about Advanced Photonix, (API) “breaking” into baggage inspection for  the Chinese airport industry was particularly newsworthy. The story not only revealed a fifth (perhaps sixth) iteration, of the API “T-Ray” application, but also demonstrates that API maintains a strong foot-hold, and sizeable lead, (in my opinion), in moving THz from the laboratory to the factory floor.  API has sold applications for use, in a variety of areas in the industrial market for inspection and quality control  in the nuclear gauge industry for  plastic,  paper,  as well as quality control of nutraceuticals, and now airport baggage inspection.

I also featured the very “generous” comments of Dr. Mona Jarrahi, which reflects another reason people read this blog, which is because I do try to find out information about THz companies, products and industrial development. I learned a great deal from Dr. Jarrahi’s comments, and particularly appreciated her “take” on how CMOS applications involving THz, continue to be limited.

Of course, much of the investment communities experience of the “trough of disillusionment” also springs directly from unrealistic expectations and a tremendous lack of understanding back in 2007,  regarding the maturity of the technology, as a result of API’s early success in 2007, by selling the very first commercial application of it’s T-Ray 2000, to NASA for inspection of the heat tiles on the space shuttle. Many thought this would open the door to immediate acceptance of the technology onto many factory floors and in diverse areas, most notably in pharmaceutical inspection, and quality control.

It didn’t happen that way, and the maturation process was not made any easier by the global financial and market collapse of 2008, which continues to haunt this technology niche. The premise of this post, is that if you were an early investor like me, you are either very brave, a little crazy or perhaps both.

To those of you, cheers!     

The technology adoption lifecycle, and variations or refinements of it, appear to have sprung from work relating to purchase patterns of hybrid seed corn.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle

The technology adoption lifecycle is a sociological model developed by Joe M. Bohlen, George M. Beal and Everett M. Rogers at Iowa State University,^[1] building on earlier research conducted there by Neal C. Gross and Bryce Ryan.^[2][3][4] Their original purpose was to track the purchase patterns of hybrid seed corn by farmers.

Beal, Rogers and Bohlen together developed a technology diffusion model^[5] and later Everett Rogers generalized the use of it in his widely acclaimed book, Diffusion of Innovations^[6] (now in its fifth edition), describing how new ideas and technologies spread in different cultures. Others have since used the model to describe how innovations spread between states in the U.S.^[7]

Rogers' bell curve

The technology adoption lifecycle model describes the adoption or acceptance of a new product or innovation, according to the demographic and psychological characteristics of defined adopter groups. The process of adoption over time is typically illustrated as a classical normal distribution or "bell curve." The model indicates that the first group of people to use a new product is called "innovators," followed by "early adopters." Next come the early and late majority, and the last group to eventually adopt a product are called "laggards."

The report summarized the categories as:

• innovators – had larger farms, were more educated, more prosperous and more risk-oriented
• early adopters – younger, more educated, tended to be community leaders
• early majority – more conservative but open to new ideas, active in community and influence to neighbours
• late majority – older, less educated, fairly conservative and less socially active
• laggards – very conservative, had small farms and capital, oldest and least educated

So, if you are here, and you are an investor in THz, you are likely more educated, more prosperous, certainly more risk-oriented, and perhaps some of you even have a larger farm.

 Thanks for reading.